The Always-On Innovation Summit just devoted it’s last session to the Blogosphere, but some “brand name” bloggers, like Jeremy Zawodny are already predicting blogging would peak soon … others are wondering if it already has.

I don’t believe either. Blogging may soon not be the “hot, new thing” ( in fact I am sure it no longer is, by the time I jump in on something, how could it be new …)

Those of us that find Blogging a good way of self-expression will likely not abandon it.

Others blog as a from of ongoing  career-management – get your name known, “become a brand”  (thanks, tompeters!).
If you want to be “in” some Entrepreneurial circles, better be a blogger… just look at what Joe Kraus says about his hiring criteria. 

That leaves the commercial crowd – blogging for $$$.  Blogging networks grow like mushrooms, their content is often not  determined by the author’s desire to communicate but by what areas help maximize ad revenue.    Don’t get me wrong: many of these networks actually provide high-quality information… but with some others, content is secondary, just an excuse to display ads.

I expect to see a spectacular  hypergrowth- peak-crash-burn cycle in this segment.   The  barrier of entry is  low, and I suspect this will be just like the day-trading phenomenon:  with news like  Jason Calacanis hitting $1M  or “ProBlogger” Darren’s record Adsense check  sooner or later many  in corporate America  will see blogging as a way to get out of the cubicle and  make easy money, then …  well, we know what happened to daytraders.
Few will make a decent profit, most will burn,  the real beneficieries will be, just like with daytrading, the platform/infractsructure/tool providers.  I wrote about one extreme example here.

When the $$ crowd is gone, blogging will be back to what it’s meant to be: a way of self-expression, communication, professional/social networking, exchange of ideas.  Which is perfectly right with me.

Technorati Tags: Blogging, Blogs, Marketing, Weblogs, Daytrading, Social Networking, Business Networking, Software, Social Software