Comments on: Analyst’s Cloudy View on Cloud Computing (Updated … a lot) http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/18/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/ Connecting the dots ... Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:03:39 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Don Dodge http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/18/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7769 Don Dodge Wed, 19 Dec 2007 00:42:16 +0000 http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/17/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7769 Zoli, This is a complicated and fast evolving story. Thanks for the links to my posts. You are right about my conclusions on how the next round of disruption will turn out. I understand how one might conclude that I am debating both sides of the issue, but I think Microsoft is a unique case. I think there are a lot of paralells between Google vs. Microsoft today and Microsoft vs. IBM 25 years ago. Microsoft did indeed learn the ropes, what to watch for, and how to respond, and I think the outcome will be different this time. BTW, IBM is still doing pretty well after being disrupted by Microsoft 25 years ago. Microsoft has adapted to several market shifts in the past 25 years and has largely avoided 'The Innovators Dilemma" that kills so many market leaders. This is rare but Microsoft has done it, and I expect them to do it again in response to SaaS web based services. Google is more of a "One Trick Pony" (search) and nothing ellse they have done has gained any revenue traction. They are placing all their bets on cloud based computing. BTW, cloud based apps are not free. Google charges $50 per user per year. After 4 years customers have paid $200...about what they would pay for Microsoft Office (in volume) and Office tends to ship every 4 years. So where is the savings? There are a lot of angles and perspectives to this issue. It is not as simple as it might first appear. Overall, I think Microsoft is doing a pretty good job of balancing the conflicting demands. Zoli, This is a complicated and fast evolving story. Thanks for the links to my posts. You are right about my conclusions on how the next round of disruption will turn out.

I understand how one might conclude that I am debating both sides of the issue, but I think Microsoft is a unique case.

I think there are a lot of paralells between Google vs. Microsoft today and Microsoft vs. IBM 25 years ago. Microsoft did indeed learn the ropes, what to watch for, and how to respond, and I think the outcome will be different this time. BTW, IBM is still doing pretty well after being disrupted by Microsoft 25 years ago.

Microsoft has adapted to several market shifts in the past 25 years and has largely avoided ‘The Innovators Dilemma” that kills so many market leaders. This is rare but Microsoft has done it, and I expect them to do it again in response to SaaS web based services.

Google is more of a “One Trick Pony” (search) and nothing ellse they have done has gained any revenue traction. They are placing all their bets on cloud based computing.

BTW, cloud based apps are not free. Google charges $50 per user per year. After 4 years customers have paid $200…about what they would pay for Microsoft Office (in volume) and Office tends to ship every 4 years. So where is the savings?

There are a lot of angles and perspectives to this issue. It is not as simple as it might first appear. Overall, I think Microsoft is doing a pretty good job of balancing the conflicting demands.

]]> By: Zoli Erdos http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/18/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7767 Zoli Erdos Tue, 18 Dec 2007 23:41:58 +0000 http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/17/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7767 Oh, well, don't worry about that...There are now two of us, weirdos:-) This thread is evolving fast.. I should probably have started a new post instead of updating this. Oh, well, don’t worry about that…There are now two of us, weirdos:-)

This thread is evolving fast.. I should probably have started a new post instead of updating this.

]]> By: Dennis Howlett http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/18/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7765 Dennis Howlett Tue, 18 Dec 2007 23:11:41 +0000 http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/17/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7765 Apologies for not referencing you Zoli. I could have used some of this when I filed: http://blogs.zdnet.com/Howlett/?p=262 Apologies for not referencing you Zoli. I could have used some of this when I filed: http://blogs.zdnet.com/Howlett/?p=262

]]> By: Assaf http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/18/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7749 Assaf Tue, 18 Dec 2007 06:25:23 +0000 http://www.zoliblog.com/2007/12/17/analysts-cloudy-view-on-cloud-computing/#comment-7749 The analogy is apt, but the projection is all wrong. A better projection would look at the rate of penetration of electricity, compare that to the phone, personal computers, cell phones, digital cameras and Flash 9. It seems that the rate is speeding up with each new generation of technologies, and is tied to the decreasing cost of infrastructure, manufacturing and delivery. I have no reason to believe it will be different for cloud computing. The analogy is apt, but the projection is all wrong. A better projection would look at the rate of penetration of electricity, compare that to the phone, personal computers, cell phones, digital cameras and Flash 9.

It seems that the rate is speeding up with each new generation of technologies, and is tied to the decreasing cost of infrastructure, manufacturing and delivery.

I have no reason to believe it will be different for cloud computing.

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