Blog-Based Analysts Shake Up IT Research – says InformationWeek. Well, I don’t know about shaking up, but I repeatedly find myself having to disagree with respected research firms.
First there was McKinsey, where I had to disagree with their assertion that financial applications will not see SaaS penetration for years to come. The ensuing discussion on several blogs, as well as statements by relevant software companies sufficiently buried that assertion.
Along comes Gartner with their Gartner Voice podcast. Not particularly exciting, I doubt you’ll hear anything new, but if you have 11 minutes to kill, why not download it.
“Right now [Saas] is a very small part of the marketplace. It only takes up…one-half of one-percent of overall enterprise applications. If you look out eight or ten years, that might go up all the way to 30%.”
While the first number is probably valid, comparing a new model to the legacy installed base says nothing about the health of the Software as a Service industry. Currently about 10% of all software sold is SaaS, and that ratio is expected to grow aggressively. There will not be wholesale migration from legacy systems, but withing years with SaaS gaining dominance in terms of new deals, hybrid environments will evolve, which eventually will tip the scale over. Gartner expects SaaS to reach 30% in 8-10 years? It took less for client-server to completely push out mainframe applications. And yes, dinosaurs do exist: at SAPPHIRE 06 SAP mentioned they still have 3-4 mainframe customers.
The analyst community serves a dual function. One, as SME (Subject Matter Experts) they provide expert opinion on trends, technologies, predict the future and help customers pick vendors. The second role is that of providing cover to CIOs and other decision makers. If I buy SAP because Gartner says its a good supply chain application then I have cover for my decision and I am unlikely to be fired for a failed implementation. Large SIs sometimes serve that purpose too (IBM Global Services).
The Blogosphere threatens the first role but has little to offer in terms of providing confidence/cover to executives.