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Why Would We Need a New Desktop OS?

I’m glad to see ZDNet agrees with me. David Berlin poses the question: By 2010, will Windows ‘Seven’ (or any desktop OS) really matter? My question a few days ago was: Windows Seven in 2010. Does Anyone Still Care?

David goes on to explain how almost everything he does nowadays is done in the browser – that is online. His experience with installed software is painful – like the recent Vista upgrade. As for myself, I still have to cool off before I can tell you how badly a forced Microsoft Money update scr***d me and all online banking users. Arrogant ignorance by Microsoft, as usual.

On the other hand, are these new Windows versions getting any better? We can read stories of high-profile bloggers switching back to XP, analyst firms advising their CIO clients NOT to upgrade to Vista, but today is the first time we here a major PC manufacturer (Acer’s President) clearly labeling Windows Vista a flop. Technically as well as commercially.

“The whole industry is disappointed with Windows Vista”

“Users are voting with their feet …. Many business customers have specifically asked for Windows XP to be installed on their new machines”

It’s great that he can now openly say this – a few years ago Microsoft would have penalized Acer.
Analysts think the problem is that consumers prefer lower-cost machines that might not work well with Vista.

“Most of the machines I see pitched in catalogs are in the $700 range, certainly under $1,000,”
“Computers with that amount of hardware are a better fit for XP. With Vista’s requirements, people may be thinking about sticking with XP, and putting less money into the hardware.”

Exactly. But this is a chicken-end-egg issue: why would anyone want to buy stronger hardware just to run a new Operating System? It only makes sense for tangible benefits, i.e. gaming, video editing..etc. Otherwise, buying more powerful machines only so they can be bogged down by Vista (or Windows Seven for that matter) is meaningless arms race. For productivity / business use, the trend is just the opposite: with the move to Web Applications, wee need less CPU, storage, memory (well, maybe not that, with zillions of FireFox tabs open…). Since I switched to Web Apps, I barely ever hear the fan come up in my trusted old laptopsmile_wink

I’m confused though:

“Microsoft reports Microsoft itself says Vista has been a smashing success, saying it had already sold 20 million Vista licences by March.”

With consumers not buying, corporate CIO’s not upgrading, manufacturers being disappointed … where did those 20 million customers come from?

Update (7/23): It’s really amazing how Donna Bogatin does not get it. She writes off David Berlind’s article as simply based on the author’s personal computing habits… Web Worker Daily, can you hear this? Microsoft OS extinction case? What are you talking about, Donna? I re-read and re-read the Berlind piece and don’t see it. That’s not what he (and I) are talking about. But here’s another ZDNet-er, Ryan Stewart coming to our rescue: in case it’s not clear, what we’re saying is The desktop OS will still matter, just not which one.

P.S. Donna’s blog does not allow commenting. What a surprise…

Related posts: /Message, Dvorak Uncensored, ParisLemon, Wired,

Update (8/9):  a very good analysis by eWeek: Broken Windows

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Flow vs. Structure: Escaping From the Document & Directory Jungle

I do not think/work/create like a machine.

My thoughts flow freely and I tend to discover relationships between events (hence “Connecting the Dots” above in the Blog Header), so I like linking things – at least mentally. Why would I confine myself to the rigid directory & file structure that computers have forced on us for decades? There are better ways… let’s look at some.

A while ago Atlassian CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes wrote and excellent piece on how Enterprise Wikis Replace Shared Drives. Shared drives as collective document depositories are a disaster, we typically can’t determine where, to put things, and certainly don’t know where to find them. And if we do find a document, how do we know whether we have the latest version? How do we know who changed what in the dozen other copies with similar but cryptic filenames spread around the shared drive?

Wouldn’t it be easier to use the equivalent of a directory structure with meaningful names, the ability to attach longer narratives to our documents and find them easily via search and tags? That’s essentially what you get when you use an enterprise wiki as your “shared drive”. Think of not documents/files only, but the very reason they exist: in business we typically work on a few “projects” at any one time. If we create wikis / wiki pages for each project / function, the page content becomes the “narrative” that describes what we do, why and how, and further supporting details are in the document attachments. There really is no reason to bury documents (doc, xls, ppt) in some central dumping place (document depository) anymore – they belong to the wiki page (project description) where by definition they are in context. Of course they can be used in several other places, in different context, which is where linking comes handy – linking to wiki pages as well as other content (documents, web sites, etc).

Now that we established the wiki as the “glue” to tie all our documents together, let’s take a step further. As we get comfortable with the wiki, we’ll often wonder when to create a separate document and when to use native wiki pages. If your wiki supports a rich word processor, textual content can easily move in the wiki pages themselves. (Interestingly, Blogtronix, the Enterprise 2.0 platform vendor uses the “document” metaphor for what others call a wiki-page.) Of course whether we call them pages or documents, they should still be easy to share with “outsiders”, by using workspace or page-level permissions, or exporting to PDF and other file formats should you need to “detach” content and email it.
This works well for text, while for other needs we shoot out to the point applications and attach the resulting files (ppt, xls… etc.)

However, like I stated before, I do see the irony of working in an online collaboration platform (the wiki) yet having to upload/download attachments. Atlassian’s Webdav plugin for Confluence is an elegant solution (edit offline, save directly to the wiki), but for most other wikis the process involves far too many steps. Why not directly edit all these documents online? This of course takes us to the old debate whether the wiki should become the new office, or just the “integrator” holding the many pieces together. As a user, I don’t see why I should care: I just want seamless workflow between my wiki, spreadsheet, presentation manager, project management tool …etc. Such integration is easier when all applications/documents are online, and there are excellent applications from Zoho, ThinkFree, Editgrid, Google, to do just that.

Working directly on the Web is not just a matter of convenience. Zoho’s Raju Vegesna points to mobility, sharing & collaboration, presence & communication, auto-Versioning, auto-save, access & edit history as native benefits of web-documents.

As we link web documents to each other, and smoothly transition between applications, a paradigm shift occurs: the definition of what we call a “document” expands. Offline, a document equals a file, defined by application constraints. Spreadsheets, presentations need to be saved in their own specific format, and they become “black boxes”: there’s not much we know about them, other than a short title. There is an overhead in opening every one of them, they need to be virus-checked, then “stitched” together to support the “flow-thinking” I was referring to earlier.
Those boundaries are stretched on the web: a document is no longer a file of a specific type, generated by a specific application: it’s a logical unit, defined by context, which weaves together content created by several applications.

Zoho’s Notebook is an experimental application that allows us to create, merge and store information the way we think, no matter whether it involves writing text, drawing charts, shapes, crunching numbers or recording/playing videos. Experimental in the sense that we don’t know how it will be used. In fact I don’t know what the future web worker productivity / collaboration tools will look like, but I suspect they will have elements of Notebook – multi-format, multi-media – and wikis – user-created structure, everything linked to everything – merged together.

Files, formats become irrelevant: there is only one format, and it’s the Web, defined by URL’s.

Additional reading:

Update (11/13/07): Read I Hate Files on Collaboration Loop. (via Stewart Mader)

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Windows Seven in 2010. Does Anyone Still Care?

So the next OS from Microsoft will be Windows Seven (where’s Windows 6?) – does anyone still care?

I simply don’t get it: Vista is barely out, nobody seems to like it, CIO’s refuse to upgrade, analyst firms tell them to wait, individual users who tried it switch back to XP, others time their new PC purchase so they can still get an XP machine – generally speaking Vista was as poorly received as the ill-fated Windows ME.

Apple is gaining market share, the major computer manufacturers are offering Linux PC’s, the Web OS concept is getting popular, applications are already on the Web – can anyone clearly see the shape of personal computing in 2012? (Yes, I know MS plans for 2010, I’m just adding the customary delay.) Will it still matter what OS we use to get on the Internet? How can Microsoft be so out of touch?

Considering the resistance to Vista ( see this Computerworld article on making XP last for 7 years) why would the world want to upgrade switch to yet-another Windows OS in five years?

Of course I’m not saying nobody cares. This hypnotized crowd certainly does. smile_yawn

Update (7/23): ZDNet’s David Berlind is asking the same question.

Update (7/25): Why ‘Seven’ and Not SP1?

Update (8/9): a very good analysis by eWeek: Broken Windows

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Web 2.0 Wiki Essentials Kit Served up 1.0 Style

Socialtext, the enterprise wiki company offers a free Wiki Essentials kit for download. It includes a basic wiki-intro, two analyst briefs and several customer case studies. Of course all of them Socialtext-flavored, but that’s quite understandable, and I think the package is a valuable intro into how corporations can use wikis – just replace Socialtext with “enterprise wiki” and do your own research.

What I’m not too happy with is the way these web 2.0 goodies are served up in good old “1.0-style”. smile_sad

  • Registration form. Ouch! This is where I normally quit, but since I wanted to report about it, I patiently filled out all the fields. Sorry for the phone no. 111-111-1111, but some of you at Socialtext have my real number… I understand this is part of a sales-push, but believe me, it’s also a turn-off for many. Why not just be the nice guys (and gals), serve up information, and provide your contact form at the end of each doc? Which brings me to the next point…
  • Download. Unzip. Deal with several PDF files. This is so un-cool and 1990’s. Why not make them available online? In fact, why not link the individual documents to each other? Wait… wouldn’t that be a … wiki? smile_wink

(P.S. I’d like to make the point that this is good info, I’m just teasing ST for not delivering it 2.0-style)

Update (7/19): There is indeed on online site Cases2.com, which is not a 100% overlap: it does not have the analyst writeups, but Harvard Prof. Andrew McAfee expects it to grow into Case Study Central” .  It’s open for contribution by anyone – the Web 2.0 way. (hat tip: Ross Mayfield)

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Can Tiny Zoho Beat Microsoft and Google in Online Office Apps? The Real Sanity Check

  If you write a blog you’ve probably had the feeling I have this morning: want to react to an article – but I already did just that, a month ago.   Nevertheless, TechRepublic’s piece on Sanity check: Can tiny Zoho beat Microsoft and Google in online office apps? is a good one, worth another go at the subject.

Executive Editor Jason Hiner is impressed by the Zoho Suite:

“It’s impressive that Zoho has created a broad fleet of full-featured online apps in a short period of time, but just as significant is the fact that it has done it without sacrificing simplicity and usability. That points to software that is well-conceived and well-developed.”

Jason finds that almost all of Zoho’s apps have the best feature set in their class of online apps, and he is not alone: see the MIT Technology Review, Gartner and countless blogs  in agreement.  He also points to potential weaknesses:

  • business model
  • security (of not just Zoho, but online apps in general) 
  • full offline capability.

It’s good to see Zoho’s Raju Vegesna acknowledge these, and stating they are working on them.  In the past 18 months Zoho has proven that when they say  “we’re working on it”, they better be taken seriously.

TechRepublic concludes:

In taking on Microsoft and Google in the office application arena, Zoho sees itself in the same mold as Microsoft taking on IBM in PCs in the early 1980s and Google taking on Microsoft and Yahoo in search in the past decade. It would be easy to wave off Zoho as a bug destined to be squashed, but judging by the quality of what Zoho has created so far, I wouldn’t count it out.

A very nice review, but let’s have a real sanity check: the question isn’t whether tiny Zoho can beat Microsoft and Google, but whether it needs to beat them at all.  I don’t think so.

This is not a winner-take-it-all, zero-sum game: all players, including Google and Zoho are creating a new, emerging market.  It’s not about slicing the pie yet, it’s about making sure the pie will be huge – and Google’s brand is the best guarantee to achieving that.  Little Zoho can be a tremendously successful business being second to Google.  There will always be room for a second .. third… perhaps fourth. Data privacy, the quality of the products, better service, or just having a choice – there will always be reasons for customers to opt for a non-Google solution.

The above is a quote from my earlier post, The Web Office Smackdown – Why It Does Not Matter, which covers further details, including Zoho’s small business apps, beyond the scope of Office.  For a better understanding of what Zoho is all about, I warmly recommend Sramana Mitra’s interview series with Zoho CEO Sridhar Vembu.

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On-demand CRM: Lunch is (Almost) Free

Will Microsoft eat Salesforce.com’s lunch with their freshly announced pricing for hosted CRM? There is a heated debate on the subject, with longtime enterprise software guru Josh Greenbaum declaring that Microsoft is about to eat Salesforce.com’s lunch:

“2008 promises to be the real year of on-demand CRM: It’s Salesforce.com’s market to lose, and, unless something changes dramatically in their favor, lose it they will.”

Josh has been bearish on Salesforce.com for a while, declaring it the next Siebel. It’s a bold call, but calling it ahead of the curve, based on fundamentals, going against the trend is what makes a real analyst.

Salesforce.com does not seem to be worried about their lunch-ticket though:

“What it looks like is that Microsoft is just marking down an inferior product to what customers are actually paying right now. “

says Bruce Francis, vice president of corporate strategy on Tod Bishop’s Blog. Ouch! He goes on:

“Also, one thing that I haven’t seen is the url where I can sign up for a 30-day trial.”

Well, I can point to such a URL, albeit not at Microsoft: http://zohocrm.com. (Disclaimer: I’m an advisor to Zoho)

I’ve long stated that Zoho’s product is actually more than just CRM: with Sales Order Management, Procurement, Inventory Management, Invoicing functionality Zoho seems to have the makings of a CRM+ERP solution, under the disguise of the CRM label. The company also stated they are working on Accounting and HR, they have a database/application Creator, and the best-in-class Office Suite: can you see the Big Picture?

Now, for the best part: pricing. Microsoft is heralded to undercut Salesforce.com with their $44/$59 per user pricing. That’s still a hefty price, if you ask me – Zoho CRM is free for the first 3 users, then $12 per user. I don’t know who is eating whose lunch, but if you are a business user, $12 bucks for CRM+++ is as close to a free lunch ticket as you can get.smile_regular

How can Zoho do this? They are passionate about the real meaning of the On-Demand revolution: bringing good quality yet affordable software as a service to the masses. They are an efficient development “machine” and manage to cut out “fat”: Sales expenses, traditionally representing 70-80% of costs in the enterprise software business. We have an ongoing debate in the Enterprise Irregulars on whether this inexpensive “pull” model is hype or reality. The nay-sayers point to Salesforce.com, or the new IPO-hopeful NetSuite: sales costs are sky high, and for all the “no software” revolution Marc Benioff has brought about, he employs a rather traditional enterprise sales staff, a’la Oracle. The key differentiator IMHO is the target market:

“Salesforce.com is focusing more of its efforts these days on capturing larger enterprise accounts”

-says Phil Wainewright, and that means traditional, expensive sales. Viral Marketing, demand generation, try-online-then-sign-up works better with the Small Business market, which is what Zoho is focusing on. The Street only seems to value the large corporate market, so it’s understandable that venture funded, IPO-driven or already public companies strive to move up the chain; Zoho is privately owned, and can afford to grow their business as they wish – apparently they see the goldmine waiting to be explored on the SMB market.

Related posts on TechMeme: eWEEK.com, Enterprise Anti-matter, Software as Services, Steve Clayton, Techdirt , CNET News.com, Microsoft News Tracker ,Zoho Blogs

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Yahoo Completely Wiped Out

Has Yahoo ever existed?   I don’t see any trace of it… it’s all gone.  My.yahoo.com, the main yahoo pages … you name it, it’s all down.  

Until this morning I haven’t  realized just how dependent I’ve became on Yahoo, even though I hardly ever “actively” use it.  After seeing my.yahoo dead, I started to read blogs from TechMeme – wanted to save one to del.icio.us – yuck, it’s dead, too, since it’s now a Yahoo property.  Trying to load my blog takes forever – waiting for mybloglog to load – yet another Yahoo service.   How about Flickr?   Dead, too – it really looks like Yahoo is completely MIA.  smile_sad

 

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NetSuite IPO Will Soon Cost Me …

… my  #2 position on Google. smile_embaressed.  It’s actually quite amazing: fellow Enterprise Irregular Jason Wood and I had a good dialogue about NetSuite’s long-expected IPO, and voila! Jason’s post is #1, mine is #2 on Google. 

 I suppose it won’t last long with the flurry of news… but it’s a good change.  NetSuite has a good product, I’m happy for them. clap

Related posts:  Business Week, Between the Lines, CNET News.com, HipMojo.com , Tech Trader Daily, Techdirt.

 

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Zoho Office on Facebook

Zoho Office on iPhone is yesterday’s news: today they are on Facebook, becoming the first Web-based Office Suite available on the new “platform”. You can browse, display and edit your Zoho Writer, Sheet and Show documents, or create new ones.

Quite frankly I’m still not sure what I am doing on Facebook. I’ve long considered LinkedIn my “home base” and resisted joining other networks, but since Facebook opened up to the world, and more importantly since publishing their API’s and becoming Platform Central, I’ve received so many invitations from my business contacts, I could no longer resist. Sounds familiar? smile_wink I still don’t know where this will lead – just read Fred Wilson’s post on Facebook’s Age Distribution. It’s still predominantly a college-age network.

Nevertheless, it’s a huge distribution channel for Zoho: discount or not, college students are not exactly known to shell out dollars for software, including MS Office, they live in a wired environment and tend to be online and collaborate a lot. Whether Facebook becomes a “businessy” network or not, just for the student market alone this was a smart move on Zoho’s part.

Related posts: Mashable, Wired, Between the Lines, Download Squad, All Facebook, Webware, Accman, Insider Chatter, TechCrunch, Venture Chronicles, Rev2.org, Techscape

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Zoho Office on Your iPhone

Are you already in line to get the iPhone?   Well, if your lucky (?) enough to walk away with one, you now have an online Office Suite to work with: Zoho released an updated, lightweight version of their Writer, Sheet, Show apps at iZoho.  You can create and edit documents, only view spreadsheets and presentations for now. Zoho will continue to improve these products.

It’s nice to have the ability to access your documents, but for longer work I will still prefer a large screen with a keyboard.  There may be a role for the cell phone though- see an earlier discussion with Sridhar on this. My interpretation of his “computing Nirvana”:

– the mobile phone brings the connectivity, browser and some personalization
– the actual work devices are the cheap displays, keyboards easily found anywhere.
– the apps and data are on the Net

Until then, enjoy iZoho.

 

Update (7/2):  Zoho Office is now available on Facebook, too.

 

Related posts: ZDNet,  WebWare, ReadWriteWeb, Wired, Deal Architect, Mashable,